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Here is the last of the Western Conference previews. My esteemed colleague Radatz is doing the Eastern Conference previews.

They are in 3 blogs in the West, in predicted order of finish in the regular season.
15-11
10-6
5-1

I have forecasted point totals for 2011-12 on the basis of the total points the West got last year, and then spread the points out among teams this year.

The West will be VERY competitive this year.  Only a few points will separate playoff qualifiers from non -qualifiers.

Last year, if Dallas had won their final game, TWO points would have separated 4 from 9 (home ice from not making the playoffs!). As it was, FIVE points separated 4 from 10.

On average in the salary cap era, two teams are new to the playoffs from the West each year (ranging from zero to four).

A "*" denotes a Head Coach in their first full year with the club. A "+" denotes a GM in their first full year with the club.

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5. Los Angeles Kings

Last Year: 7th, 98 pts, lost in first round to San Jose 4-2

Projected This Year: 100 pts

Key Departures: Wayne Simmonds F, Ryan Smyth F, Michal Handzus F, Alex Ponikarovsky F, Oscar Moller F

Key Additions: Mike Richards F, Simon Gagne F, Ethan Moreau F, Colin Fraser F

NOTE: D Drew Doughty is unsigned. My prediction is based on him eventually being signed, but not necessarily to start the season.

Analysis:

For those who don't know, I've been a season seat buyer to the Kings since 1980. After 3 years of taking lumps under GM Dean Lombardi's rebuilding plan (and another 4 years before that under Dave Taylor), LA has made the playoffs each of the last two years, exiting in the first round each time. The time has come for L.A. to move up into elite status in the West.

In order for that to happen, the Kings picked up the best single player to change sweaters in the off-season, Mike Richards. Richards was captain of the Flyers and is a great two-way forward who can playmake and score. The price was steep as they gave up their best prospect and popular hard-nosed F Wayne Simmonds. L.A. also let some deadwood go, and then had to let Smyth go due to cap constraints if they want to re-sign their corp (Doughty this year. G Jonathan Quick next.)

With DD in the fold, L.A. has perhaps the deepest D in the conference. One or two might get dealt for additional scoring punch- which is where the Kings problems have been. F Dustin Penner is in his contract year and was a dreadful expensive acquisition last year. Simon Gagne can score, but can he stay healthy?

Jonathan Quick has established himself as one of the best half-dozen G's in the league and may step up even more this year. He was unbeaten in shootouts BTW. I expect a real dogfight in the Pacific Division with L.A. coming in 3rd. But the top 8 is what really matters here in the conference.

F Anze Kopitar is perhaps the best two-way F in the league and his late season injury was devastating to the Kings. He needs to rebound completely from off-season ankle surgery.

Their Core is Getting: BETTER compared to the rest of the conference.

This is still a young team in terms of the major talent.

Key Contributor to Step Up: Jack Johnson D

JJ was the 3rd overall pick in the 2005 draft and Lombardi paid an arm and a leg to get him. He was rewarded with a 7yr 30 million extension last season. While the guy plays with heart and wants to win, he has never been "+" on the +/- and was a dreadful -21 last year. That has to change. If he can get himself close to "zero", the Kings will contend for the regular season Western Conference title  (and a championship) because he will see a lot of ice time.

Chances of Winning the West in the Playoffs: 13%

While I expect them to be up and down in the regular season, this team is now built to do major damage in the post-season IF people can stay healthy.

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4. San Jose Sharks

Last Year: 2nd, 105 pts, beat L.A. 4-2 in the first round, beat Detroit 4-3 in the second round, lost to Vancouver 4-1 in the third round

Projected This Year: 101 pts

Key Departures: Dany Heatley F, Devin Setoguchi F, Scott Nichol F, Jamal Mayers F, Ben Eager F, Niklas Wallin D, Kent Huskins D

Key Additions: Brent Burns D, Martin Havlat F, Michal Handzus F, Jim Vandermeer D

Analysis:

Contrary to popular belief, the Sharks are not a "choke" team. With two straight second round victories over Detroit in the post-season, I think they have established themselves as one of the top 4-5 teams in the league, but never one of the top 1-2. GM Doug Wilson continues to tinker with the personnel and the chemistry to finally get them over the hump and into the Stanley Cup Finals. The Sharks have made the playoffs SEVEN straight years, only losing in the first round once, but never winning the conference.

This year's tinkering addresses an age old problem- grit on the defensive end. Brent Burns was brought in from Minnesota to toughen the club up. I think Burns is a top-notch D-man and is not "Rob Blake" re-invented (at least the San Jose Rob Blake). Also, another one of my favorite players, Martin Havlat, was acquired in a separate trade from the same club. Havlat might be a bit injury prone, and while he doesn't have offensive numbers of the departed Heatley, he has much better playoff numbers, and can play D a bit better.

The Sharks are in excellent shape in terms of scoring as Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, Ryan Clowe, and Logan Couture remain. They also picked up Michal Handzus in the free agent market from the rival Kings. I liked "Zeus" a lot; but he vanished the second half of the season and turns 35 this year. I think SJ overpaid for him.

Not noticed is the fact that the two departing D-men had won Stanley Cups with other clubs.

G is a bit more of Q mark than what SJ might think it is. Antti Niemi, who won a Cup with the Blackhawks, got chased a couple of times in the post-season. Not what you want. However, that isn't why SJ didn't advance last year. It was that intangible grit and focus.

Their Core is Getting: BETTER compared to the rest of the conference

I could argue either way here, but if the focus is to advance in the post-season, then I like what the Sharks have done. There's a lot of talent here.

Key Contributor to Step Up: Brent Burns D

No question, this guy needs to bring a Chris Pronger type presence on the ice. If he somewhat does that, the Sharks will be a fearsome club.

Chances of Winning the West in the Playoffs: 12%

Definitely one of the favorites here, but I give the Kings a better chance because I like their back-end better.

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3. Anaheim Ducks

Last Year: 4th, 99 pts, lost in first round to Nashville 4-2

Projected This Year: 102 pts

Key Departures: Jarkko Ruutu F, Brad Winchester F, Kyle Chipchura F, Todd Marchant F, Andy Sutton D, Andreas Lilja D

Key Additions: Andrew Coligiano F, J-F Jacques F, Kurtis Foster D

Analysis:

I despise the Ducks because they've accomplished more in their 17 years in the league than the Kings have in their 43. With that being said, I admire how they are able to rebuild. How do they do it? Do they have pictures of other GM's with little girls or something? Last year was supposed to be one of those years b/c all-time great D-Man Scott Neidermeier retired, and this shortly after all-time great D-Man Chris Pronger went to Philadelphia. The third key D-man on their Championship 2007 club was Francois Beauchemin, and they lost him to free agency.

So what happens over the course of the season? Jonas Hiller, one of the best G's on the planet has vertigo, and is lost for the year. No problem, the Ducks trade to get Beauchemin back. Then they trade to get offensive D-man Lubomir Vishnovsky who only led the league in D scoring, and then had journeyman D-man Toni Lydman go +32 (far better than his previous best which was +10) and finish 2nd only to Zdeno Chara in that category; and then had their 12th top draft pick, D Cam Fowler, play better than expected in his rookie season.

Oh, 40 year Teemu Selanne racked up 80 points in 73 games, F Corey Perry carried the club on his back the last month of the season as he won the Art Ross Trophy (MVP- media), and the Maurice Richard Trophy (most goals) as the Ducks surged from 11th to 4th in the last 3 weeks.

Selanne, the ageless wonder, just re-signed for another year, and in one of the least noticed (but most important) moves in the off-season, Anaheim picked up Andrew Cogliano from Edmonton. Cogliano is 24, hasn't missed a game in his 4 year career and is only being paid 2.4 per. See why I hate them? Why can't the Kings do this?

Add to this the fact that Anaheim has the BEST (yes, I know Vancouver and Washington) top line in the league with Perry, Ryan  Getzlaf, and Bobby Ryan, and a decent 2nd line in Selanne, Jason Blake, and Sakku Koivu, and you have a recipe for a serious contender.

The big ?? is Hiller, but he's reported to training camp without symptoms.

Their Core is Getting: BETTER compared to the rest of the conference

at least compared to the beginning of last year with the caveat below

Key Contributor to Step Up: Jonas Hiller G

NO questionable player is more important to the success of a contending club than Hiller in the West anyway. If he's healthy, the Ducks can seriously contend for a championship. Without him, the Ducks will be fighting for a playoff berth with another dozen teams.

Let me go puke now.

Chances of Winning the West in the Playoffs: 12%

Again, another contender, but even with Hiller healthy, they don't play the D necessary to elevate them ahead of L.A.

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2. Chicago Blackhawks

Last Year: 8th, 97 pts, lost in first round to Vancouver 4-3

Projected This Year: 104 pts

Key Departures: Brian Campbell D, Chris Campoli D, Tomas Kopecky F, Troy Brouwer F, Marty Turco G

Key Additions: Andrew Brunette F, Daniel Carcillo F, Jamal Mayers F, Sean O'Donnell D, Steve Montador D

Analysis:

For a team that struggled during the regular season, lost 11 of their players due to cap concerns from the 2010 Championship team, including their G, the Hawks came within an OT of knocking off the Presidents Trophy (best regular season) winner in the first round.

They're going to do better than that this time.

Chicago was worried about their G situation when they let Antti Niemi walk over $500K (that's how bad their cap sitch was). So they signed veteran Marty Turco last year. But the star was backup Corey Crawford, who played well enough to get a 3 yr 8 mil extension after the season. Either Alec Richards or Alexander Salak will be the backup. (I know they have Cristobal Huet under contract for 5.6 mil, but he gets hid in Europe again b/c of the cap).

Got to give credit to 3rd year GM Stan Bowman, who has retooled the club quite effectively. The big piece of the puzzle was moving scoring D-man Brian Campbell's monster 7.1 per contract to Florida (b/c they needed to spend to the cap floor!). In his place, Chicago brought in two role playing tough guys on D. 40 year Sean O'Donnell and 32 year Steve Montador. I like both of these guys. Even though O'Donnell is aging, he continues to give quality minutes in the 3rd pairing. Both are stay at home, tough guys, who are smart and understand their roles on this club. Don't look for the Blackhawks to get pushed around as much this year if at all.

The core (excluding the G) is perhaps the best of the NHL. Jonathan Toews, Marion Hossa, Patrick Sharp, and Patrick Kane at F and a great trio of Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith, and Niklas Hjalmarsson on D. About the only questionnable move was bringing in 38 year Brunette to be on the first line, but he stays healthy and averaged over 20 goals per year over the last 3 years at Minnesota of all places.

You might see a couple of minor league players make a modest impact this year on the roster;  F's Jeremy Morin, Igor Makarov, and Kyle Beach.

Their Core is Getting: UNCHANGED compared to the rest of the conference

Campbell is gone, but he was getting older anyway and everybody else mentioned except Hossa is getting better.

Key Contributor to Step Up: Corey Crawford G

He really doesn't need to improve his play in so much as show that last year was not a fluke. If he tanks, the Blackhawks don't have a lot of backup options.

Chances of Winning the West in the Playoffs: 16%

They are my "gun to the head" pick to come out of the West b/c of their playoff experience and the smart additions of secondary players who have demonstrated they can execute their roles.

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1. Vancouver Canucks

Last Year:  1st, 117 pts, beat Chicago 4-3 in the first round, beat Nashville 4-2 in the second round, beat San Jose 4-1 in the third round, lost to Boston 4-3 in the Finals

Projected This Year: 107 pts

Key Departures: Christian Ehrhoff D, Raffi Torres F, Jeff Tambellini F, Alexandre Bolduc F

Key Additions: Marco Sturm F, Andrew Ebbett F

Analysis:

Strange season for the Canucks. I picked them to win the Cup before the start of the season. They win the President's Trophy and come the closest ever to winning their first league title- only to be embarrassed on home ice by the Bruins to put a bitter end to a sweet season.

VC stood pretty pat in the off-season, except they got somewhat weaker. First, the only real character sandpaper guy on the team, Raffi Torres, left via free agency. He was replaced by Marco Sturm, yet another "fancy Dan" European player more concerned about scoring than winning. I saw his handiwork in L.A. last year, and he was a bust. Then the Capitals picked him up on waivers, and he was a bust there.

Their best D-man, Christian Ehrhoff also left via free agency. However, VC has a very deep D-corps, and I don't think his loss will be felt as much as Torres.

Roberto Luongo preps for another year in the pipes. Long regarded as an elite G in the league, he was a finalist for the Vezina Trophy (best G) last year. To me, he was overrated (although still in the top six). Luongo was chased FOUR times in the post-season last year and has been very erratic. Fortunately, they might have the best backup in possible franchise G Cory Schneider, who filled in well for Luongo when he tanked.

There's plenty of talent on this club, led by the Sedin twins, Daniel and Henrik. They've only won back to back scoring titles (one by each!). Henrik won the Ross Trophy (MVP by media) in 2010 and Daniel won the Lindsay Award (MVP by the players) last year. Throw in Selke winner (best defensive forward) Ryan Kesler, first line winger Alex Burrows, and faceoff master Manny Malhotra and you've got an envious group of F's.

With that being said though, there are some problems. First; injuries coming in- versatile F Mikael Samuellson is out until November at the earliest. Kesler had surgery late in the summer and may not be 100% for a while. Malhotra had to have a third eye surgery in the off-season. At one point, his vision was in danger; now it may just be his career. The second issue is toughness or lack thereof.

Last year, VC had the most talent in the NHL and it showed in the regular season. They were first in scoring AND in goals against. First on the Power Play and third on the Penalty Kill..... in the regular season. Then the playoffs started.

Scoring dropped by over a goal a game for them versus the regular season. The lack of toughness started showing up. Eventually, their talent was not suitable for the pounding game the Bruins in particular brought to the table.

I expect them to snatch the top seed in the West because they play in the Northwest, but they do not approach 117 pts like last year. For VC, that's not important anyway. It's the second season that matters.

Their Core is Getting: WORSE compared to the rest of the conference.

These guys are a year older and softer with Ehrhoff gone.

Key Contributor to Step Up: The Sedins

Huh? No, I'm not talking about scoring, I'm talking about not trimming your fingernails when your team doesn't have the puck. Like it or not, this is the Sedins' team. If they play rugged and tough, then the rest of the team will follow. Unfortunately, they've not done that in the past. I don't think it's in their DNA. Last year in the playoffs Henrik and Daniel were -11 and -9 in the post-season; the worst of any F on the club. In the regular season they were +26 and +30.

Chances of Winning the West in the Playoffs: 12%

I'm being generous here because of their talent. But the inconsistent goaltending and lack of grit, coupled with a narrowing of the talent gap could spell an early exit for the Canucks just as easily as another Finals appearance.

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