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Here is the second of the Western Conference previews. My esteemed colleague Radatz is doing the Eastern Conference previews.

They are in 3 blogs in the West, in predicted order of finish in the regular season.
15-11
10-6
5-1

I have forecasted point totals for 2011-12 on the basis of the total points the West got last year, and then spread the points out among teams this year.

The West will be VERY competitive this year.  Only a few points will separate playoff qualifiers from non -qualifiers.

Also, remember this, in the salary cap era, there has been an average of TWO new playoff teams in the West each year (ranging from zero to four.)

Last year, if Dallas had won their final game, TWO points would have separated 4 from 9 (home ice from not making the playoffs!). As it was, FIVE points separated 4 from 10.

A "*" denotes a Head Coach in their first full year with the club. A "+" denotes a GM in their first full year with the club.

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10. Phoenix Coyotes

Last Year:  6th, 99 points, Swept in the first round by Detroit 4-0

Projected This Year: 91 points

Key Departures: Ilya Bryzgalov G, Vernon Fiddler F, Eric Belanger F, Ed Jovanovski D, Andrew Ebbett F, Nolan Yonkman D

Key Additions: Mike Smith G, Raffi Torres F, Brad Gordon F, Alexandre Bolduc F

NOTE: F Kyle Turris is unsigned at this point. I'm assuming he will sign.

Analysis:

We now enter the third year of Phoenix trying to avoid falling back into the financial ashes as the league is still running and owning the club. The only reason this franchise has not moved or folded is because the City of Glendale agreed to pay the NHL $25 million for a SECOND year to keep them there. There are only 226K people that live in Glendale. I would be p*****d if I was in Glendale.

Most people are writing the Yotes off for a playoff spot now that this is the 3rd year and that franchise cornerstone Bryzgalov left for Philadelphia. I know better though. Don't be surprised to see PHX in the post-season again even though I'm saying they don't quite make it.

The big reason is the man behind the bench, Dave Tippett. He's one of the four best coaches in the NHL (Dan Bylsma and Lindy Ruff are two of the others and the third you will read about here eventually). I loved Tippett when he was an AC in L.A. When Phoenix signed him a week before the season last year, he won the Jack Adams Award for COY in the league. GM Don Maloney is also an astute evaluator of talent.

The bottom line here is that Phoenix plays a "refuse to lose" game that is highly disciplined. The players have an "us against the world" mentality. I see PHX play in L.A. and I love their style. Of course, this team is built from the G out. I'll get to the G in a minute.

The D is a good servicable unit led by underrated Keith Yandle. If Yandle played in a bigger market he would be garnering Norris Trophy hype. Maloney did sign him in the off-season. The departure of monster D-man Ed Jovanovski is overrated because he is past his prime and was injured down the home stretch.

What I really like about the club is the two-way play of the F corp. Shane Doan, Radim Vrbata and Lauri Korpikoski are three of the best of these in the league. Martin Hanzal and Turris are also more than adequate. Raffi Torres is another seasoned acquisition who will fit right in and give the club an element of toughness to replace the departed Jovanovski.

So, why do I have them out this time?

The departure of Bryzgalov and what other clubs are doing to improve. Mike Smith is a good pickup, having battled Roland Melanson for the G job in T-Bay for most of last year, but he's no Bryz (in the regular season anyway). Also, this is the 3rd year of a "ship without a captain" syndrome. How long can the club be motivated to overachieve? It's not like they're going to be able to sneak up on people anymore.

Their Core is Getting: WORSE compared to the rest of the conference.

Key Contributor to Step Up: Martin Hanzal F

What is really needed a top-drawer scoring threat for the Yotes. The leading goal scorer last year had only 20 goals. Hanzal is now 24 and has had some expectations on him. While not a failure, someone needs to step up to score, particularly that the G situation has been downgraded. Hanzal is the most likely guy.

Chances of Winning the West in the Playoffs: 3%

I wouldn't be surprised to see them there again, but other clubs have been doing things to get into the post-season themselves. PHX downgraded the roster. So, one playoff team from last year is gone. Will there be another?

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9. Nashville Predators

Last Year:  5th, 98 points, Beat Anaheim 4-2 in the first round. Lost to Vancouver  4-2 in the second round.

Projected This Year:  91 points

Key Departures: Jason Ward F, Cody Franson D, Steve Sullivan F, Marcel Goc F, Matthew Lombardi F, Wade Belak F, Shane O'Brien D

Key Additions: Brett Lebda D, Ryan Ellis D, Niclas Bergfors F

Analysis:

Think Phoenix, but with better scoring, goaltending, and ownership. The Preds came off their most successful season in franchise history last year getting to the second round of the playoffs for the first time ever.

Barry Trotz is the only HC Nashville has ever had. He's the last of the four best coaches in the NHL. Like PHX, the Preds are a "refuse to lose" patient, defensive club. Pekka Rinne was the one of the three best G's in the NHL last year and got a deserved Vezina Trophy nomination. Shea Weber and Gary Suter are two of the best 15 D-men in the league with Weber garnering a Norris Trophy nomination last year and deservedly so.

Nashville has a slightly better scoring touch than their PHX counterparts. Ryan Ellis a rookie D-man that is supposed to make some noise and Niclas Bergfors is hoping to contribute some scoring punch, although he will probably be a 3rd/4th line guy.

So, again, why am I not picking them to make the post-season? First, they did little to upgrade their roster and they lost a significant number of role players. Second, Rinne had a great season last year, but is he a great G? Can he turn in another season like that? Third, they are now the hunted having gotten to the second round. Will the roster be complacent? I realize I'm speculating here, however, I was adamant about forcing myself to pick two clubs to NOT make the post-season that did last year b/c the conference average has been two clubs per year.

Like I said, the difference between #3 and #11 is very small.

Their Core is Getting: WORSE compared to the conference

Their core is only three players; Rinne, Weber, and Suter. That's the problem. They need a legit 30 goal scoring threat.

Key Contributor to Step Up: Mr. Carrie Underwood F

Thought that would get your attention. That's Mike Fisher for you uninitiated. Fisher came to Nashville about 2/3rd's of the way through last season (amid much hype) from a 11 year career in Ottawa. He's still only 31, so he should have gas left in the tank. A traditional 25 goal scorer, Fisher struggled a bit finding his scoring touch, but played better defensively. The Preds will need him to revert to his Ottawa scoring form while continuing his solid defensive play.

Chances of Winning the West in the Playoffs:  5%

I wouldn't surprised to see any of the top 9 win the West. Remember, a  G like Rinne can lead a team on a deep playoff run. The problem of course is getting there. So, two new teams make it......
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8. Colorado Avalanche

Last Year:  14th, 68 pts

Projected This Year: 92 pts

Key Departures: Brian Elliott G, Peter Budaj G, J-M Liles D, Adam Foote D, Pascal Dupuis F, Tomas Fleishman F,

Key Additions: Semyon Varlamov G, J-S Giguere G, Gabriel Landeskog F, Joakim Lindstrom F, Chuck Kobasaw F, Jan Hejda D, Shane O'Brien D

Analysis:

Meet my surprise team out of the West. Yep, I'm forecasting a 24 point improvement over last year.

Goaltending was awful last year, so the Avs GM Greg Sherman gave up TWO first round draft choices for Capitals G Varlamov. He backed his bets by picking up J-S Giguere, he of the Maple Leafs of late, but of the Anaheim Ducks where he won the Conn Smythe Trophy and a Stanley Cup in different years.

The Avs has always had a power punch offensive team. So it is again this year with old hands like Milan Hedjuk and Paul Stasny. Matt Duchene is the best of a good lot. Two other newcomers should make a significant impact this year, Gabriel Landeskog and Joakin Lindstrom- both getting their first NHL experience. I expect Landeskog to win the Calder Trophy.

While St. Louis was beaten up by injuries last year, the Avs were really hit hard also. Two key players, D Kyle Quincey and F Peter Mueller are hoping to come back from concussions. If they can (if...... IF), the Avs are going to be a force to be reckoned with. Hejda and O'Brien are vets who will eat up minutes on the D end. Kobasaw is a decent two-way forward.

The Avs will not be able to make the post-season unless they play better D. The hope is that Quincey and the two D adds, plus another year of seasoning and an upgrade in G will get them there.

Somewhat of a stretch pick for me here, but I think the D end will get them in.

Their Core is Getting: BETTER compared to the rest of the conference

Key Contributor to Step Up: Varlamov or Giguere in G

I've already laid this out. One of these two has to step up and show some semblance of their former selves. The mantle is primarily on Varlamov (who posted some the league's best #'s in the regular season) with Giguere as a backup. Both have been injury prone though the last two years. If neither of these step up the Avs could be facing a lottery yet again.

Chances of Winning the West in the Playoffs: 3%

While I'm picking them to make the playoffs, I don't pick them to do well in the post-season. Too much inconsistency, but that's why they play em you know.

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7. Calgary Flames+

Last Year: 10th, 94 points

Projected This Year:  96 points

Key Departures: Robyn Regehr D, Adam Pardy D, Ales Kotarik F, Fredric Modin F

Key Additions: Chris Butler D, Leland Irving G

Analysis:

No team stood as pat in the off-season as the Calgary Flames, who did not even make the playoffs last year. Regehr is really the only significant departure to the structure of the club, although Pardy was a 3rd pairing D-Man.

No other club in the NHL is as hamstrung as the Flames when it comes to the cap and to contracts. The Flames have ELEVEN players who have NMC or NTC clauses, and that kills flexibility, especially if you have only 3-4 mil left on the cap to begin with.

Only D Cory Sarich remains from a club who had four of the nastiest, body crunching, D-men surrounding G Mikko Kiprusoff. The club is one of the oldest in the NHL and their centerpiece G has likely seen better days. So why am I picking them to make the post-season?

Jay Feaster.

Who? You'll note that "+" next to the Flames name. That means that GM Jay Feaster is at his first full year at the helm. Feaster only built T-Bay from an also ran into a Stanley Cup Champion in 2004. He officially took over the GM job from Darryl Sutter on 12/28/10. At that point, the Flames were mired near the bottom of the conference at 17-18-3. Darryl's brother, Brent was HC; but Feaster did not fire him. As a result, the club finished the season on a 24-11-9 tear that nearly saw them swipe a playoff spot. The available point percentage of 64.7% during that period was only exceeded for the season by Washington and Vancouver.

Scoring went up to almost 3.5 goals a game after he took over. The club played with enthusiasm and zest. However, problems still are there. If one of the major players go down, the club is in trouble.

With that being said, I'm putting my faith in Feaster. Jarome Iginla remains the undisputed on-ice leader of the club and remains one of my favorite players in the league. He can do it all. At 33, he bagged 43 goals good for 3rd in the league. Alex Tanguay had a re-surgent season though. Big things are going to be expected of Mikael Backlund. At 22 yrs old, he should be C on the top-line.

Another big thing in the equation is Mikko Kiprusoff in the net. The team has been reliant on him. His numbers were pretty decent last year when compared to his career even though they did not match a stellar 2009-10 season. I say he continues to plug along at between 90-91% save pct with a GAA of 2.50-2.6. If Calgary averages 3 GPG, they should be fine.

Their Core is Getting: WORSE compared to the conference

This club is a team in transition. This is another risky pick to see the post-season, but it was an entirely different club once Feaster took it over. That being said, unless some of the contracts are miraculously moved, Feaster has his work cut out for him the following year and beyond.

Key Contributor to Step Up: Jay Bouwmeester D

Bouwmeester is one of the highest paid D-man in the NHL at 6.68 per. He needs to start playing like it. 24 pts and a "-2" is pretty stinky for a club that was +9 for the season and was 7th in the conference in goal differential.

Chances of Winning the West in the Playoffs:  5%

Kiprusoff can steal games, so you can't dismiss the club's post-season chances.

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6. Detroit Red Wings

Last Year: 3rd,  104 points, swept Phoenix 4-0 in the first round, lost to San Jose 4-3 in the second round

Projected This Year: 98 points

Key Departures: Chris Osgood G, Brian Rafalski D, Ruslan Salei D (died in the Lokomotiv crash)

Key Additions: Ty Conklin G, Ian White D, Mike Commodore D, Brendan Smith D

Analysis:

Intuitively and on paper, Detroit should not be a playoff team, much less a significant factor in the West.

But if any team has earned the right to be valued on the basis of the intangibles it is Motown.

Even though they are almost 3 years younger than the start of last season, they are still the oldest club in the league. Two of their top six D-man (and DET was one of the more balanced squads in terms of usage last year) are gone. Lidstrom and Stuart are woefully overrated to boot. (Niklas Kronwall though is very underrated.) Their G has never gotten passed the second round. Their F corp is another year older with nobody really in the pipeline for this year that will meaningly contribute.

So, what's there to like then Ark? Their forwards, their forwards, their forwards. NOBODY in the league has a better set of twelve forwards who can a) cycle the puck b) play two-way hockey and c) make the passes in traffic and under pressure than the Red Wings.

When DET gets the puck into the attacking zone and controls, it is thing of beauty to watch. 30 seconds, 60 seconds, even 90 seconds of domination can occur with this bunch led by Pavel Datsyuk (overrated, but that means he no longer is one of the three best F's in the game), Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen, Todd Bertuzzi, Valteri Filippula, Tomas Holmstrom, Dan Cleary, Darren Helm, and Justin Abdelkader (who is the best D forward on the club).

The Wings can roll 4 lines all night (and all season long).

G Jimmy Howard was a little spotty last year after a solid effort the year before. He's not bad though. I remember people saying the same thing about Chris Osgood (including me!), and he was in net for two Cups.

The real problem is on the blue line. Niklas Lidstrom is back for a 20th season at the age of 41. While he is one of the all-time greats, he is over the hill. It was a joke that he was nominated for the Norris last year much less won it. While the guy still scores, HE WAS THE WORST D-MAN ON THE CLUB LAST YEAR WITH A "-2"!!!

The two guys they brought in to replace the departures I like, especially Mike Commodore (one of my all-time faves), but these guys have seen better days. The Wings should try to sign Drew Doughty. They actually have the cap space to do it (but that is for the next blog?!).

Here's the funny part. People have been saying this type of stuff about Detroit since the lockout. They've only won a Cup, been to the finals another time, and have been one of only two clubs in the West to make the playoffs every year since the lockout. HC Mike Babcock just keeps them winning. How can I not pick them to make the post-season then?

Their Core is Getting: WORSE compared to the rest of the conference

Age is age people. Of their six key players, ALL are at least 30, two are at least 35, and one is over 40.

Key Contributor to Step Up: Brendan Smith D

Hard to think that I would pick a 22 year old rookie as the key guy; but I'm there and here's why. Niklas Lidstrom cannot continue to play 24 minutes a night at the age of 41 if they hope to do anything in the post-season. They need a young guy who can eat minutes and learn on the job. Detroit needs quality minutes on the blue line like oxygen this year and somebody under the age of 27 will need to provide it. If he fails, then Jakub Kindl could do it; but they need someone on the blue line to step up and exceed expectations, particularly this year.

Chances of Winning the West in the Playoffs: 10%

You can never count the Red Wings out if they make it to the post-season. You are looking at a club that has won 4 Stanley Cups since 1997 with three different goalies.
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