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Here it is, the top-5 rundown for the East. It's going to be relatively short and sweet. At this juncture the biggest variable that could swing the ordering is obvious to everyone, but even that wouldn't change things a whole lot. At least I don't think so. Here's what I'm talking about...

 

 

 

5. Pittsburgh Penguins

 

Last season's rank: 4

 

There's really only one thing to write about here.

 

The Penguins have to deal with their own elephant, and it's arguably the biggest one in the NHL. Word on Sidney Crosby's health sounds guardedly optimistic on the surface but has chilling caveats built in. It stirs memories of Marc Savard's steadily declining prognoses. Now Savard is gone, perhaps never to come back. Crosby acknowledges that there's a slight chance he won't be back, and though he says that's miniscule it's not comforting to hear him mention it.

 

Without him the Pens are still a solid and tough team, and who knows, he may be back. With him at near 100% they would vault a couple of teams in these rankings. Without him they're still good for the top 5. The brief Penguin career of the aging Alex Kovalev is done, and he's replaced by the aging Steve Sullivan, but the team is still basically what it was last year, with a presumedly healthy Malkin and Staal. That ought to be enough.

 

Chance of winning the East is 10%

 

 

4. Tampa Bay Lightning

 

Last season's rank: 5

 

The Lightning were solidly in the elite 5 last season and ought to be back there again.

 

Gagne is gone, but he really didn't contribute as much as his reputation would have suggested. Player attrition was generally minor. Offseason moves affected mostly the depth chart, but they still have stars like Stamkos and St. Louis, and Roloson, 42, still looks good. Lecavalier may be aging too, but he's still a fine second-line anchor. Bouchet looked like a great coach in his first year and should only get better.

 

The key player is obviously Stamkos, and he should do fine. They bank on it. If he has something even resembling an off-year, they're in trouble, but he seems just too good for that to happen.

 

I see them almost neck-and-neck with the Caps, but a bit short. They are a solid team with few glaring weak spots, if any. A Lightning team with Stamkos ought to edge out a Penguins team without Crosby.

 

Chance of winning the East is 10%.

 

 

3. Boston Bruins

 

Last season's rank: 3

 

A Stanley Cup doth not a dynasty make, and after hearing reports of young players like Marchand and Seguin haunting the bars in Boston and partying long enough to draw a phone call from an unnamed veteran telling them to get out of town, then hearing that Marchand's agent is playing hardball with Chiarelli, it's easy to see that this team which put on such an impressive performance in last year's playoffs isn't necessarily a given quantity. These guys were all about chemistry.

 

Recci is gone and so are Ryder and Kaberle. The addition of Corvo is being regarded as a defensive step up from Kaberle, while the acquisition of Pouliot from Montreal not only looks good but also must have ruffled more than a few red feathers up north. Still, it's important to note that despite the flurry of goals in the finals, this team's traditional weakness is scoring. Do they have enough?

 

They'll be in the mix. The key to the season may be the continued good health of Bergeron. Marc Savard, unhappily, will not come back. Zdeno Chara has to keep up the good work (he led the NHL in +/- at a whopping +33). Without him they're in trouble. And Milan Lucic needs to step it up a notch. Big notch. It's time. Lastly, with no Savard they'll need Seguin to grow up fast.

 

Chance of winning the East is 12%.

 

 

2. Philadelphia Flyers

 

The team that Boston rubbed out made big changes. Gone are Bouchet, Leino, Richards, Carter, Boynton and others. But Bryzgalov is now in goal and that should help end the game of musical goalies in Philly, or so goes the theory.

 

The stunning departures pale next to the big news though. There is an elephant in this room too, and it is the signing of Jagr. Is he still able to play at high level? If he's only 90% of his former self, he should be a real difference-maker, but whether he can offset the loss of a couple of stalwarts remains to be seen. That's the key to the season, along with Bryzgalov's play in goal. They've banked on these changes, and they believe they have a strong enough remaining cast to take such gambles.

 

They could be better or worse. I'm guessing better... but it's still a guess. If Jagr does an NHL version of the Shaquille O'Neal disappearing act in Boston, the missing pieces will come back to haunt them... and me, for picking them second. Bryzgalov will become the real key.

 

Chance of winning the East is 12%. Maybe.

 

 

1. Washington Capitals

 

Last season's rank: 1

 

Star power hasn't gotten the Caps through the playoffs, but it ought to get them the most points in the East again at least. I don't see where they've made themselves worse, and they didn't need to get much better. But it's obvious what their offseason strategy was.

 

Giving up a #1 for Brouwer seems a bit steep, and the contract to Ward is also just a bit extravagant, but the Caps are looking for some toughness to get them a Cup. The acquisition of goalie Tomas Vokoun is being given better press. Roman Hamrlik is aging, but he sounds like a great 2-year grab. They even brought back old pal Jeff Halpern. 

 

They are already loaded and trying to fill gaps in their style, rather like trying to shade their personality to just a bit grittier. They watched the Bruins last year. Ted Leonsis is from Lowell. They know. The fact that they weren't shy about signing aging vets, known quantities to fill perceived gaps, tells you they're gearing up for a run. It looks on paper like a good series of moves. They ought to finish as first seed, especially if Crosby's out. I think they'll do it even if he's back.

 

Chance of winning the East is 16%.