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In parallel with Ark_Razor's fine summary of the Western Conference, I present my version of the East.

 

The Eastern summary will, as the Western summary does, quote a percentage chance of winning the conference for each club. The percentages will add up to 100 over all fifteen teams.

 

And, the East will also be broken into three installments. This is the first, showing predictions for the bottom third of the conference.

 

I don't forecast a great deal of change in the East this year. I don't see doormats rising to contend, nor contenders becoming doormats. I see some churn, but not huge leaps in position. Even player catastrophes like Marc Savard and (possibly) Sidney Crosby, or surprise arrivals like Jaromir Jagr, don't create a real sea change. Things were closely packed among the top five or so teams last season, and this season should be no different. Only Washington seems again to have the potential to run away and hide.

 

The bottom tier won't change too drastically either. We now present the bottom five teams:

 

 

 

15. Ottawa Senators

 

Last season's rank: 13

 

There's no point in trying to make sense of Ottawa's personnel churn, which isn't small. What began last season will continue as these guys are in rebuild mode, having squeezed every drop from their run as a powerhouse. They can't score goals, and so far the rebuilding emphasis seems centered on defense. Alfredsson is a great player, but going on 39 he's becoming a nostalgia piece that links the Senators to their successful past. Karlsson ought to be a star --- someday. Prospective fellow blueliner Jared Cowen reportedly thinks he'll make the roster. But that's the kind of news you get. A name that jumps at you is Sergei Gonchar, and he'll be 38 before the season is over. 

 

The team hasn't bottomed yet, and doesn't appear to be looking to make a splash this year. Raw kids and aging vets. It's the proverbial 5-year plan. Well, maybe 3 years. It won't be this year for sure. 

 

There's no real key player for a rebuilding team. Maybe Cowen? These guys are like the Bruins were when Bobby Orr came up. No designs for the playoffs, just watch him and hope.

 

Their chance of winning the East? 1% (anything is possible).

 

 

14. Winnipeg Jets

 

Last season's rank: 12

 

Big news in Winnipeg is that the Jets have signed Kyle Wellwood. Well, the actual big news has been dominated by (of course) the change in venue for the team, and fluff like picking a logo for the uniforms. They've only just recently come out of front-office and coaching disarray. The roster hasn't changed all that much... how do you change your roster when the guys who change it are being changed? After a short spate of Musical Coaches, Noel got the job. The team's scoring pantheon is dominated by names like Ilya Kovalchuk, Marian Hossa and Marc Savard. They're all gone. 

 

But the Elephant in the Room is, of course, the divisional schedule. Last I looked, Winnipeg is somewhere north of Grand Forks. The divisional travel distances for the aptly-named Jets will be (get ready):

Washington: 1246 mi.

Raleigh: 1347 mi.

Tampa: 1701 mi.

Ft. Lauderdale: 1874 mi.

 

The only good news is that they won't have to go to Atlanta. And the rest of the Eastern Conference isn't exactly next door either. Boston is 1349 miles away. New York is 1287. Toronto (the closest) is a mere 942. You get the idea. It's hard to figure how they improve on last year's performance. Word has it that a major realignment will occur --- but by next season. Remember, this is hockey, not football. That's a lot of miles.

 

Chance of winning the East projects to me as 1%. They might have trouble just finding the East.

 

 

13. New York Islanders

 

Last season's rank: 14th

 

Why am I lifting this stagnant franchise up a spot? See above, I guess. They keep waiting for past moves to bear fruit, but it hasn't happened yet. Most of the recent moves made appear motivated by salary cap concerns. Goaltending is a major concern, and Billy Smith isn't walking through that door. Even if he did, he might not get the contract DiPietro got. What were they thinking? They're still paying Yashin, ferpetessake. He's been gone for years now.

 

The key to something better than last year might be Montoya, who finished strong but has to prove he can continue. Grabner looks good. But there just isn't much to write home about, or to write about period for that matter. They're saddled with DiPietro who, to put it mildly, doesn't appear to be living up to his monstrous 15-year contract. If he is, then why is Nabokov in the house? Young sports history buffs must be wondering by now how this franchise came out of nowhere to win four consecutive cups. These are the Dark Ages, and they show no signs of abating.

 

This is another 1% shot for the East. Next.

 

 

12. Toronto Maple Leafs

 

Last season's rank: 10th

 

Aren't these guys on the way back? Think I heard something about that last year, just before they folded up the tents and slid back into the second division. There's something about them that I can't put my finger on, but it could well be that they haven't won anything in so long the entire organization has forgotten how. Look at the teams immediately below and above them. All have had some form of success far more recently than the Leafs, whose last Cup came in 1967. Zero conference championships. 

 

Trading Lebda and Slaney for Lombardi and Franson isn't going to shake things up. Liles might, but he fills the hole left by Kaberle. Their key player may be Kessel, and that's not particularly good news. He may have scored 32 goals and 64 points (both team-leading stats), but his plus-minus was an abysmal -20. Grabovski scored almost as much and had a team-leading +14. Goaltending continues to be a potential problem, with Reimer being the Great Hope.

 

Chance of winning the East looks like another 1% to me. Except for travel schedules and the like, I may have ranked them lower. Perhaps I'm a bit too rough on them, but if so it's loss of patience. However they finish, they're not going anywhere.

 

 

11. Florida Panthers

 

Last season's rank: 15th

 

The doormat from Alligator Alley spent the offseason at least trying to do something about it. Kevin Dineen knows his hockey and can't be a detriment. They signed a bunch of free agents. If Fleischmann is healthy he could be a help. The turnover was significant, and one would think the odds of it making them worse are nil. 

 

Jose Theodore is the great hope in goal, but he'll likely need some help at his age. Still, he may be their key player. A hot goalie, even an old one, can do wonders for you. Ask the Bruins. Tomas Kopecky is one of those late-bloomers, but at 29 and coming off a 42-point season with Chicago, he might just be about to find his niche. His NHL time has been spent with the Wings and Black Hawks, and that's good company. 

 

There's nowhere to go but up. They do have a key vulnerability --- their location. Like the Jets, the Panthers are a zillion miles from nowhere as far as hockey goes, except for Tampa. With Atlanta gone, their next shortest trip will be to North Carolina --- 671 miles. Almost a thousand to DC. Gets worse from there. Nashville is only 795 miles away. Too bad they're in the West. To give some perspective, Boston's longest divisional flight is shorter than any trip the Panthers make past Tampa, and even seven of Boston's conference flights are shorter.

 

But the chance of winning the East is 3%. I'm high on these guys :)