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Here's the second installment of the NHL Eastern Conference predictions. This one will list teams ranked #10 to #6... the middle five, at least as I see them.

 

Once again, the percent-chance-to-win is given, and it would add up to 100% aggregately over all 15 teams.

 

As with the bottom five, not a ton of churn, but perhaps one controversial pick. Remember, in this group we see the boundary between those who make the playoffs (at #8) and those who don't. That's the spot where the late-season dogfight will occur, if there is one.

 

 

 

10. Carolina Hurricanes

 

Last season's rank: 9

 

This team still has something of a strong core, but unfortunately for them they've managed to contend just enough over the past few post-cup years that changes to the team have been slow in coming. That is, with the exception of the erosion of the defense.

 

Last year the defense wasn't good, and it's doubtful whether effectively replacing Joe Corvo with Tomas Kaberle will do a lot to fix that. Brian Bouchet might help (or not), but it's their shots-on-goal that are bad, and he can't do much about that except try to stop them. Ponikarovsky is something of a defensive forward with a decent +/- history, but he can't score. Like at all. 

 

Seems there's more hope for a miraculous return to the glory of the recent past than there is stomach for change. For those reasons, I'm leaving them out of the playoffs again. The key player is probably Skinner, who needs to follow up his Calder year with another good one to turn this team upward.

 

Chance of winning the East is 5%. Maybe their remaining pedigree makes it an underestimate?

 

 

9. New York Rangers

 

Last season's rank: 8

 

The Rangers made the playoffs last season by the skin of their teeth. They've added Brad Richards, but they've lost Chris Drury and (horribly) enforcer Derek Boogaard. Despite the status of Richards and the fact that they needed just the sort of offensive improvement he brings (having what looks like an already-good and possibly even improving defense), I don't see where they're improving enough as a whole to stop what I expect to be a New Jersey rival that doesn't politely sleep for half a season again. In fact, there's really nobody in the division to beat up on except for the Isles. 

 

The key is obviously Richards. If anything pushes them over the top, he'll have to be it. The D can't get that much better.

 

See below for further rationale of why I see them missing the playoffs. It's basically that if the Devils get back into playoff mode, there just isn't room for them in the top 8 anymore.

 

Chance of winning the east is 6%.

 

 

8. New Jersey Devils

 

Last season's rank: 11

 

Lemaire is gone again. I don't know if that's good or bad. It's a chance for DeBoer to use his OHL-honed skills with a team that has half a chance. He's no dummy. Parise and Brodeur both were hurt for a good part of last season, and are back. The team didn't exactly rock the world with transactions, except for signing Kovalchuk for 15 years. You'd think they'd learn from the nearby Islanders. He has to do well. It looks on the surface like they're doing all the wrong things and the Rangers ought to roll past them again.

 

So why am I picking them to rise to playoff level? Simple... they're used to it. If last year was a sign of collapse caused by age, it certainly didn't show in the second half as they went 26-7-3 after trading Langenbrunner. I think last year (just the first half, actually) may have been an anomaly. And if Brodeur continues to age fairly gracefully, they should be back to their old tricks. 

 

This despite the roster being almost static during the offseason. Maybe their celebrated banking and ownership problems had something to do with that. But I still see the fast finish of last season, combined with a winning tradition, trumping their metropolitan rivals from Manhattan. Barely.

 

Chance of winning the East is 6%.

 

 

7. Buffalo Sabres

 

Last season's rank: 7

 

The team is built around the goalie, and the offseason arrival of Regehr makes the defense in front of Ryan Miller look solid indeed, despite the Sabres having given up on the aging Rob Niedermayer. Ville Leino is raising some eyebrows, coming over from Philly to join the team he helped knock out of last season's playoffs. He's still something of an unknown quantity, but the Sabres have high hopes for him. 

 

The team looks solid, but nothing too different from last season. That's why I've left them at 7. For that to change for the better, somebody is going to have to have a breakout year. I guess that falls on new arrival Leino as much as on anyone. Still, Miller is the key. If he falters, the Sabres falter with him.

 

They might be better than Montreal. Which team finishes ahead of the other is something of a crap shoot, I admit.

 

Chance of winning the East is 8%

 

 

6. Montreal Canadiens

 

Last season's rank: 6

 

Les Canadiens were solidly beneath Tampa Bay last season, and I don't see them changing enough to overcome that. They'll continue to be fast-skating and scrappy, as well as floppy. I rank them over Buffalo only because of their pedigree, but I'm not sure that makes too much sense anymore. 

 

They had a lot of player churn, and it's hard to put your finger on how it will affect them. They brought in Blunden and Cole for some added size. Woywitka is a 1-year defensive rental, and it doesn't seem he'll offset the loss of Hamrlik and Wisniewski, but they're hoping for big things from Emellin. 

 

If Markov and Gorges, fresh off the injury list, can stay healthy then the defense might even be better than it was last season despite the losses. But Price needs to have another great year in goal. The loss of Pouliot to Boston came as a slap upside the old tete. The Montreal Police may charge him with treason when the Bruins come to town. Just kidding. I think.

 

I won't be shocked if Buffalo vaults them, but I don't expect it.

 

Chance of winning the East is 8%.