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Enough already. It's first-shot time for the 2012 season. What, it's too early? Before the draft? Before free agency even? Good points, but I still don't care. We know what teams are made out of in terms of draft position, cap space, volatility, ownership, front office, coaching --- little things like that. Add to that their 2011 performances, and we have early-guess potential galore. Plus, there's plenty of time to address the many caveats as information pours in. The end of April should be a watershed of data. As usual, we pick only divisional standings. That's hard enough, isn't it?

 

 

NFCE: The Usual Crap Shoot

 

1. PHI: Yeah, the Dream Team fizzled. Yeah, Reid is back. So is Vick. So are a bunch more. So why pick these bozos over the Super Bowl champs? Well, during a mediocre (ok, a lousy) 2011 season, said bozos went 5-1 against their own division. That puts them at 3-7 against the rest of the league. Oh well. They can still beat the teams in the NFCE.

 

2. NYG: The Gmen don't seem to have a problem winning in the playoffs. Other than that, they seem to have a great deal of trouble. Last year they were 9-7. That won't win the NFCE two years in a row. It's unlikely even to put them in the playoffs.

 

3. WAS: I don't know yet what these guys will look like when they take the field, especially on offense, but I'm guessing the free-spending Skins will put something different out there. I think that will be enough to finish above what I see as a deflated edition of the Cowboys, primed to hit rock bottom before realizing it's time to blow it up.

 

4. DAL: See above. Unfortunately for Dallas, we do know what they'll look like when they take the field. Barring a sea change of Manninglike proportions, that won't recharge them. That won't even recharge your old AAA batteries. I see a lot of cowpokes in a lot of saloons riding a lot of electric horses and country singers.

 

 

NFCN: Prodigal Son returns with minor repercussions.

 

1. GB: That was hard. We've all seen disheartened teams give up, but I think the pedigree is too strong here.

 

2. CHI: With Cutler back on board, da Bears ought to remind everybody of how good they looked last year before Cutler went down. That was good enough for second place and the playoffs. Didn't happen. This year it might happen, Lions notwithstanding.

 

3. DET: They'll be back and should finish with a winning record. It just won't be enough to beat Chicago or Green Bay. It might, just maybe, be good enough for the second wild card if the Bears get the first one.

 

4. MIN: Same coach. Same fading purple gang. Promising young QB, but that's not enough.

 

 

NFCS: On the brink of upheaval? Don't count on it.

 

1. NO: These guys give me the creeps, like I sense the end of the run and a collapse into chaos. It could happen, but maybe it's just because they go up against the plodding Falcons, who never seem to change much. I'm still picking them for first. It could happen.

 

2. ATL: There's just something about a Mike Smith team that gives me the urge for a pillow. They'll be back again in their contender suits. They'll fall short again. Maybe the Saints will go belly-up and they'll take the division. But that'll be it.

 

3. CAR: Mind you, I don't think Cam Newton is going to surpass his rookie year as a sophomore. I just think the rudderless Bucs have hit a wall.

 

4. TB: Or should I say hit the floor?

 

 

NFCW: Lots of 'ifs', but one certainty.

 

1. SF: Lots of speculation about big QB changes in Seattle and Arizona. Alex Smith, meanwhile, still hasn't won legions of fans. But these guys are too deep to finish out of first place in this division.

 

2. ARI: Here's where the crap shoot starts. Are the fading Cardinals going to squeeze a couple more good seasons out of their core? Will their QB woes fade away or be jolted out of a rut via acquisition? That might decide whether they finish second or third. I'll pick second... for now.

 

3. SEA: Are the developing Seahawks ready to make a step up? Will their QB situation take a turn for the better? Sounds familiar, doesn't it? I'm taking a wild guess that the answers are no and no, but it's still intriguing for some reason.

 

4. STL: Was last year the anomaly, or was it the year before? Mystery. I hate mysteries. They're the biggest question mark in the NFCW. Question marks get picked last. It's a good way to pick things in the long run.

 

 

AFCE: Things don't change too fast 'round these here parts.

 

1. NE: That was hard too.

 

2. NYJ: Here's where it gets more interesting. Do the Jets solve their biggest problem (Sanchez) one way or another? Is the answer Manning? This could be the difference between third and second for them, but it won't get them past New England.

 

3. MIA: It would be tempting to put Buffalo here, but after their second half last season it's show-me time all over again. The Fins have a new if unimpressive coach, and Parcells is fading into the sunset on his parachute. Still, the organization is strong enough to know its needs. But whether or not it solves them, it's still a question of whether Buffalo is ready --- or even all that good.

 

4. BUF: And that's why these guys are here. Remember those 6-0 Broncos? Remember those red-hot Bills? Remember how those 6-0 (turned 8-8) Broncos did the next season? Just a feeling.

 

 

AFCN: Things don't change too fast 'round these here parts neither, Pilgrim.

 

1. BAL: I've been reading a lot about the evils of drinking, so I quit reading. I'd also been reading a lot about the impending demise of the Ravens due to age, etc. Good thing I quit reading. How quickly a botched field goal turns you into a rebuilding project. They ain't there yet. Roid power.

 

2. PIT: Despite the presence and youth of Ben, I see these guys as possibly closer to the end of the run than I do Baltimore (though both are getting close). I don't see how the Steelers are on the way up, and there are only two other options --- static or sinking. Neither option wins the division.

 

3. CIN: I might have picked them over Pittsburgh, but Dalton hasn't convinced me he's ready to take these guys over the next hump just yet. A repeat winning season would be pretty good. Might even get a playoff spot again, but I just don't think so.

 

4. CLE: These guys are going absolutely nowhere. Peyton Manning himself couldn't help. They are the definition of 'stuck in a rut'. They have two first-round picks (one is #4). Yawn. Not again.

 

 

AFCS: How many times can you say "Manning"?

 

1. HOU: Manning or no Manning, this time around Schaub & Co. ought to be ready to take the division... again.

 

2. TEN: Yeah, they're average, but so is the division unless Manning comes back and goes nuts.

 

3. IND: This is assuming Manning will be replaced by Luck. I think with Manning, they might even challenge for the top one more time. Iffy division, isn't it? But if the Colts are a young superteam waiting to break out, I must have missed it last year. Polian will fix things. Oops.

 

4. JAC: MJD might be the best all-purpose back in football, but he's eerily alone down in the swamps. They were the one team to field a legitimate rookie flop at QB last season. Maybe he bounces back to have a great career (look at Peyton Manning)... or maybe he doesn't.

 

 

AFCW: Official end of a dynasty... of sorts.

 

1. KC: Great defense. Starting QB comes back off the IR. Coaching fiasco solved... we think. No reason these guys can't rise back to the top of a mediocre division. Good draft spot too.

 

2. DEN: Count me as one who thinks the Broncos made some strides last year. I still find them intriguing, and there's just no question that if Tim Tebow uses the offseason to get his passing game in better order they'll be back for more.

 

3. SD: Norv Turner is back. He has overseen the slow deterioration of the house that Marty built. The paint has all fallen off now and the boards are starting to rot. This could be the year the roof finally caves in.

 

4. OAK: Fortunately for Norv, he has the Raiders to fall back on... or just to fall on. They realized quickly that Campbell, fresh out of the laundry chute from Washington, wasn't the answer, so they mortgaged the future for Carson Palmer. Sounded like a great idea, but it didn't work. They'll be back in generally unaltered form, having fired the coach to give the impression that they weren't standing still. But they are. With Denver having found hope, that's probably their subway ticket.